BUS600 Foundation of BM -- Quantitative Analysis

Quantitative analysis is the method to measurement a complicated case by assigning a numerical value to variables, build a model and further evaluate the potential outcomes and case performance through mathematical and statistical calculation.

Following steps should be included in the quantitative analysis.

Collect data and determine what’s the variables that will affect the outcome

• Draw a cause-effect fish bone diagram to identify key parameters or dominate variables
• Do the market survey and see if the market survey does agree with the identified variables.
• Plot the each data distribution and figure out what’s the largest population pool.

The statistical distribution could be normal, binominal, exponential or other kind of distribution shape. Base on the distribution we can figure out what’s the standard deviation (sigma). Using Weibull analysis to understand a more complicated distribution shape.

Figure out the dependency and correlation between variable and the outcome.

Sometimes variables are not independent from each others. Besides, different parameters mixed up together could have accumulate or negative effect. Factor relationship from 3 or more test groups can be revealed by ANOVA (Analysis of Variance). Linear regression analysis under normal or log normal scale can also easily find out the correlation from two variables (one to the other).

Build Mathematical Model

After understand all the correlation between variables and the affect to the outcome, we can further build the model for the future outcome prediction. Comparing with the actual result and we can further fine tune the module and make forecast with better accuracy.

To understand quantitative analysis, first we need to get familiar with statistical terms. Here is the website that is quite helpful

http://www.animatedsoftware.com/statglos/statglos.htm#index

Actually Microsoft EXCEL also provide basic and intermediate level quantitative tools. Such as Linear Regression Analysis and ANOVA analysis

http://www.cba.nau.edu/allen-d/Excel%20Regression%20Tutorial/excel_regression_tutorial.htm

http://www.aspfree.com/c/a/Microsoft-Access/TwoWay-ANOVA-Analysis-of-Variance-in-Microsoft-Excel/

If you do not feel dizzy yet after reading the article, following are some commercial softwares about statistical analysis.

http://www.spss.com/

http://www.reliasoft.com/

BUS 516 Entrepreneurship -- Business Plan Outline

Business Plan for AimRel Consulting Group

Opportunity

Semiconductor industry is the field with extreme high requirements on product quality and reliability to serve the end customers. Most of small and mid scale IC design houses dont' have the staffs with knowledge on dealing with reliability risk management as issue occurred. This is the opportunity for starting up a reliability consulting business in the semiconductor field.

Global semiconductor sales now are expected to amount to $302 billion in 2010. The global automotive electronic has about $106 billion business and the growth rate is ~7.5% annually. In general the amount spending to safeguard the product quality is about 1% to 2% of total revenue. This indicates the worldwide reliability service market just for semiconductor industry itself should have at least $3 billion US dollars. For advance reliability simulation and forecast will be heavily rely on high expertise and experience staffs. The revenue that AimRel can generate can be either through itemized service or deliver the turnkey result per project basis.

Comparing with other existing company, AimRel is not just providing the service only but to deliver the total solution to the customer. We advise the customers what’s need to improve and enhance. In addition, AimRel staffs can identify the cause of issue and help to fix it.

Product Develop & Operation

The initial stage the company would like to focus delivering the high knowledge-integrated service but relative low overhead cost. This strategy will benefit the company and the customers most. In parallel, AimRel will target for the key reliability tests that no or only few reliability lab have the capability to deliver and focus on the consulting service. These reliability test services including board mount interconnect reliability test and power temperature cycling test. We may also utilize the outside analytical service to deliver the final result to the customer. It is believed that all the equipment expense could be paid off in one year and start to generate over 50% of profit annually from the beginning of the third year. Any service items with profit margin less than 30% will be either outsourced or establish the facilities at oversea. The oversea operation and field service can be established at Taiwan or China, which labor cost is only about a quarter or less of US operationy.

Problem / Pain

Most of small or mid scale IC design houses don’t have the staff with knowledge enough on dealing with reliability risk management as complicated case occurred. This is the edge that AimRel can cut in and get the business.

Who is the major customer?

AimRel will provide the reliability solution for the semidoncutor companies, especially small or mid scale companies. The customers in this revenue segment already have certain flagship products that will make significant revenue and they are targeted for major industrial or consumer electronic application.

Market

Target to service IC design houses with revenue between $20M to $500M. There is a demand on how to deal with the reliability risk at the high volume and high quality business segment, such as automotive and telecommunication industries.

AimRel professional staffs has excellent knowledge on device physics, failure analysis, reliability modeling to help the customer make the best risk and reliability justification from the comprehensive statistical analysis.

Market context?

• Certification from ISO-9001 / 16949 / Delphi / Continental
• Member of IPC, ASM, iNEMI, IEEE, AEC, JEDEC
• Conform to local safety & building regulation

Market Search Analysis

• iSupply Market Search Analysis
• Competitor Strategy Study
• Option and solution comparison
• Service and price comparison

Resource

• Fund raising from Venture Capital
• List of top 100 venture capital firms http://www.entrepreneur.com/vc100/stage/early-1.html
• Tax and Legal consulting needed
• Open a LLC or Corporate at Delaware or oversea such as Bermuda for tax saving

Risk & Award

• Need to constantly update the knowledge
• Most of business may need through referral
• Recruiting knowledgeable staffs
• Funding for oversea and the 2^nd stage expansion

BUS 600 Foundation of Business Management --- Study of Apple Financial Statement

After reviewed Apple’s 2008 Q3 financial statement, my calculation shows Apple’s financial ratios as follow:

Current Ratio = 3.04

Financial Leverage = 1.62

Long Term Debt to Capital = 0

Asset Turnover per Period = 0.82 (annually basis)

Inventory turns per Period = 8.92 (turns per quarter)

Days Sale in the Inventory = 0.0012m

Return on Sale = 14.36% (quarterly basis)

Return on Equity =24.64% (annually basis)

Few key ratios cannot be simply figured out by just looking into quarterly statement. Extracting figures from 2008 annual financial report is required for certain financial ratio evaluation.

As we perform Apple’s financial benchmark comparison with Hewlett-Packard and Dell. Apple’s profitability, growth and financial strength ratios do outperform its competitors. However, Apple’s PE ratio is 23. This figure is at least twice higher than HPQ and DELL's P/Es, which are 12 and 18 respectively.

How Apple can further get the products accepted by the business users will be the key to its future growth.

Watch out competitors… iBoard and iMat are coming !

:D

BUS 600 Foundation of Business Management ---Chapter 4 Organization Behavior

Study of organization behavior is to understand the human interaction from the working environment and ensure the desired goal can be accomplished effective and efficiently. OB will help us to understand and rethink what’s our real inner value from the people we interface with, and further improving the communication, conflict solving skills and capable of assemble a team to deliver the result.

Change the motivation process for my current company………

Authority for sure will also get the result done but in general I prefer lead by group by example when I am not eloquent to motive others.

I like to set the higher target goals and challenge the higher talent staffs. All the staffs should also have “can do” mentality and are willing to work together as a team to ensure company will benefit most. I prefer to breakdown the whole department function into individual executable items. Shape each individual to have different expertise to empower them and have the sense of ownership. And further develop their career goal to ensure the staffs will advance their career in the long term. Mean while as a leader, I will allocate resources to help team accomplish the task and request the top management providing incentive (either company stocks or cash) as the project being accomplished ahead of schedule.

Here is an interesting quiz from Facebook I found that can help to know what kind of leader we are....

http://apps.facebook.com/quizcreate/quiz.php/27537/What-Military-rank-are-you/

BUS 516 Entrepreneurship --1st Assignment: Business idea & Reflection

Define business idea

AimRel Reliability Consulting Group targets to provide reliability services to IC design houses with revenue between $20M to $500M. In general the companies within this revenue range already have certain flagship products that ship to certain segment end customer that are highly demanding on the product quality and reliability, such as automotive, medical, networking and customer electronic industries. However, most of IC design houses in this revenue scale don’t have the staff with knowledge enough on dealing with reliability risk management as complicated case occurred. AimRel professional staffs has excellent knowledge on device physics, failure analysis, reliability modeling to help the customer make the best risk and reliability justification from the comprensive statistical analysis.

Define your mantra

Benefit our customers and do no harms to our sociality based on the uncompromising professional expertise and Integrity

Reflection on reading (Creating a Strategy & Innovation Strategy)

Customer selection:

• Provide Quality, Failure Analysis and Reliability service focus at the semiconductor industry.

Value proposition:

• Offer teleconference or direct on-site consulting service to the customer. We ensure the customer’s concern will be solved in timely manner.

Differentiation and control:

• We target our service in semiconductor IC industry. Each specific service group lead by a senior technical talent has more than 15 years of experience.

Scope of products and activities:

• Services can be either custom tailored in any of the following categories: IC failure analysis, IC reliability forecast estimation, and Quality system consulting services for specific industry application. AimRel can also provide a complete turnkey solution for the customer.

Organization design:

• Provide itemized services to allow the customers able to control the budget and leverage their own in-house equipments and expertise.Our specific expertise focus allow our technical talents can do cross functional consulting services.

Value capture for profit:

• Flexibility on providing itemized or integrated services. We can also utilize outside failure analysis and reliability service lab to expedite turnaround time as face capacity constrain.

Value for talent:

• High talents will be recruited by partnership. Company will offer profit sharing plan if they are not on of funders.